Economic Forecasts

For the last year or so, we have heard so many forecasts about what is going to happen in our economy. There were guesses that the mortgage crisis would bottom out either during the summer of 2008 and then the fall of 2008. Of course, now they are forecasting sometime in 2009 the mortgage crisis will bottom out.

With the elections coming up in November, less than 2 months now, some people are forecasting that once the next President is chosen, the public will feel more confident about what is going to happen in the country and the economy will change.

Today on the news, Lehman Brothers may be filing for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch is working on a deal for Bank of America to buy them out. The forecasters are adding on to that news that maybe more banks will be following.

At this point, I am tired of hearing forecasts. Forecasts are educated guesses. I am wondering if some forecasts are based on other people forecasts and just stepped up one. I think all forecasting should be based on what is going to happen in the next month or quarter. Look at the facts from the previous month or quarter and forecast the next 4 weeks or 12 weeks accordingly. I am wondering if the long term forecasts are scaring people and thus causing more problems.

So, with all the above news, who wouldn’t want to be conservative in their spending and maybe even saving money or saving additional money just in case. The retailers are already preparing for a slower holiday season – now that is a good, realistic forecast!